1. Josh Smith-Atlanta Hawks

If the playoffs this past season were any indication, Josh Smith could be the best candidate to have a break out season.

It’s not like Smith was a slouch last year for the Hawks either. The combo forward averaged 17.2 points per game and 8.2 rebounds per game. Not to mention that at 6’9’, he was tied with Chris Kaman for second in the NBA in blocks at 2.8 per game. The only real knock on Smith is that he is not the best decision-maker - shot selection has been spotty and he doesn’t always give 100%.

However, his shooting percentage has risen all three years he has played in the NBA (42.5% his rookie year to 45.7% this past year) and the number of free throws he attempts per game has gone up as well as he has learned not to settle for long jump shots and instead use his athleticism to attack the rim and get to the line.

As for the assertion that he doesn’t always play hard, it seems as if he turned on his game when the games he was playing in counted for something, i.e. playoffs. Playing against the best defensive team in the NBA, Smith was the focal point of the Hawks startling victories in Game 3 and 4, scoring 28 and 27 points in those games respectively.

However, he still showed how maddening he can be to coach, and to watch. In Game 3 he went off for 28 points on 8-16 shooting, 6 rebounds, 7 blocks, and 12-13 from the stripe. But then in the crucial Game 6 he reverted back to the old Smith, scoring just 6 points on 3-10 shooting and generally looking timid and disinterested with the ball in his hands.

He is a restricted free agent, and frankly it’s surprising that since Josh Childress has left for overseas that the Hawks haven’t done everything in their power to keep Smith in Atlanta. If he stays in Atlanta, he could be playing for one of the most exciting young teams in the NBA. A full season with Mike Bibby running point, and running the wing alongside the lethal Joe Johnson should play right into the skill set of Smith, if he chooses to stay.

Smith should continue to progress and mature; after all, he will turn only 24 next December. He is blessed with frightening athleticism and terrific size and speed which, if used correctly, could make him unstoppable in years to come.

2. Rajon Rondo-Boston Celtics

Another maddeningly inconsistent yet talented player to watch for next year is Rajon Rondo. He was the guy in Game 6 of the NBA Finals who scored 21 points, grabbed 7 rebounds, dished out 8 assists, and had 6 steals. But he was also the player who just two nights before in Game 5 scored just 3 points on 1-7 shooting as the Lakers sagged off from 18 feet as if he was Shaq.

The good news for Rondo is that the weakest element of his game, his shooting, is something that can be improved drastically in the off-season with hard work and repetition. His decision-making for a 1st year starter at point guard was solid, and he is one of the best rebounding guards in all of basketball.

He is also a quick and smart defender who has freakishly long arms and big hands. Qualities which are perfect for disrupting the passing lanes and making opposing players work to get it across half-court and towards the hoop.

He still had the tendency last year to try and force passes that weren’t there, and he also made simple passes look fancy, which left a lot of people scratching their heads, and led to a couple games where he incurred 5+ turnovers. But again remember that he was only in his second season and as he grows in maturity and poise, some of those passes will disappear from his repertoire.

Don’t expect to see him among the top point guards with Chris Paul and Deron Williams, but he was the fourth best rebounding point guard at 4.2 per game, and was tied with Jason Kidd for fifth among point guards in steals at 1.7 per game. He has the type of mentality that could eventually push him into the same category as Paul and Williams.

Remember, at the start of the season a lot of people were quick to discount the Celtics because there are very few teams that win titles with such an inexperienced point guard. While playing alongside Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce helped, Rondo deserves a lot of credit for being the pilot of the league’s best team at just 22 years old.

3. Thaddeus Young-Philadelphia 76ers

Young is almost a slightly smaller version of Josh Smith. The 20-year-old spent one season playing college basketball at Georgia Tech before deciding to turn pro before last season’s NBA Draft. He was labeled as a player with a ton of potential and upside, but also a player who wasn’t going to make an impact for several years after he had polished his game. He then proceeded to go out and prove everyone wrong, and be a main reason why the 76ers were one of the most improved teams in the NBA.

Young joined a number of other rookies who began the season by racking up DNP’s as often as they did points. Young had eight DNP’s in his first 18 professional games, and a lot of his time in the early part of the season was garbage time when the game was already out of reach.

The turning point came for Young in the beginning of January. Fresh of a 5-minute, 0 point performance in a loss to Utah, something clicked with Young and all of sudden he was one of the better players on the 76ers. He went out two days after that loss to Utah and had 16 points and 9 rebounds in a loss to the Lakers. He followed that performance with 11 points and 8 rebounds in another loss to the Nuggets. From that point he didn’t look back.

Somehow, despite playing just in just 21.0 minutes per game, Young averaged 8.2 points per game, and 10.1 after January 2nd. In the playoffs the kid had double digit point totals in the first four games helping the 76ers shock the Pistons in Games 1 and 3, but his best performance was in Game 4. Matched up against Tayshaun Prince some of the time, and Richard Hamilton at other times Young scored 15 points, grabbed 9 rebounds, and had 3 assists.

He took his lumps all season, but what more can you expect from a 20-year-old playing in the NBA? He had games down the stretch where he would disappear and then lose minutes because Maurice Cheeks would lose faith in him. He ended up as NBA.com’s 6th ranked rookie despite averaging less minutes than almost everyone behind him in the top-10.

Now, on an improving team that added an inside threat in Elton Brand, and still has wings Andre Iguodala and Louis Williams, Young fits right in as a combo forward similar to the role Lamar Oden played with the Lakers this past season. If he continues to improve and grow more assertive, a leap in production should follow.

4. Jose Calderon-Toronto Raptors

First and foremost, the easy reason to say that Jose Calderon will break out from last season is that he won’t be sharing his position with another great point guard named T.J. Ford who was traded to the Pacers. Calderon did play about 30 minutes per game last season, but he was always forced to look over his shoulder at the starter, T.J. Ford.

In the off-season the Raptors made it clear whom they preferred by trading Ford, indirectly handing the ball, and full-time duties to Calderon who was not too shabby last season, but should be even better this season. What can’t he do? He averaged 11.8 points per game, 7.0 assists per game, 3.6 rebounds per game, 1.1 steals per game, and shot 43% from behind the arc, and 91% from the free-throw line.

Want more? Well, those numbers may look good, but as a starter last season Calderon averaged 13.0 points per game, 9 assists per game, 1.2 steals per game, and 53% from the field while hoisting 1.2 three-pointers per game. But keep in mind that he still had to worry about having T.J. Ford come back in at any minute, and it’s quite difficult to find your rhythm as a player when you get rotated the way  Mitchell rotated his point guards.

Oh, I also forgot to mention that he might be the smartest point guard in the league, and that includes CP3 and Steve Nash. Chris Paul’s Assist/Turnover Ratio of 4.60 was so fantastic only two players had a better one. One was Brevin Knight, whose ratio was 4.62, and the other was Jose Calderon, whose ratio was a whopping 5.38. Calderon’s ratio was so good, that in the past four seasons, no one else has even had above 5.00, not even Nash in his MVP years.

Now the Raptors get to unleash a confident Calderon for closer to 35 minutes a game. Plus Calderon doesn’t only have to pass to Chris Bosh anymore. Now he gets the option of giving it to Bosh, or giving it to newly acquired Jermaine O’Neal, or the rapidly improving Jamario Moon.

But unfortunately for opponents he might be a pass first point guard, but give him too much room, and the opposition will pay for it. He is not just a set shooter, he is great at creating his own shot and shooting off the dribble making him incredibly difficult to guard.

5. Martell Webster-Portland Trailblazers

So how many swingmen can one team have? Well, Portland GM Kevin Pritchard is working hard to break any pre-established record with the way he is swinging deals and signing players. If you can’t new guard Rudy Fernandez, the Blazers now have six players on their team between 6’5’ and 6’9’. So sorting through these guys to find out who will emerge was like trying to win the NBA lottery.

But still, the swing player with the most upside out of any of these players is 4th year player Martell Webster. The unbelievable thing is that even though he is about to enter his 4th year, Webster is only 22 years of age. At 6’7’ and 225 lbs., Webster has great speed and ball-handling skills for his size but like many players with his skill-set, he is content to sit on the perimeter and look for open jumpers.

Despite his incredible talent, Webster shot only 2.2 free throws per game in 28 minutes of play. It’s not uncommon for such a young player to avoid driving the hole like the plague, but the good news is, it’s easy to fix. Webster’s problems seem to stem from a lack of confidence. He is timid with the ball in his hands, and just last year finally started to shoot the ball more (8.8 shots per game).

After the all-star break Webster shot 44% from the field, averaged 11 points per game, and shot 42% from behind the arc. The Trail Blazers drafted him out of high school because of how sweet his stroke was, and he is just finally starting to show that off as well.

But Nate McMillan has apparently been impressed with the way Webster played as the season progressed, and began playing him more often and showing a little more faith with the supremely talented youngster. Webster started out as member of the “Jail Blazers” playing alongside cancers like Zach Randolph, Darius Miles, and Sebastian Telfair. Now Webster is playing with a younger, more energetic team featuring stars like Brandon Roy.

Who knows, maybe all Webster needed was to loosen up and have a little fun, maybe this year the key to his game will finally be unlocked.

Michael Lemaire is a staff writer for Hoops Vine